FEED WHEAT

© farm-images.co.uk

Coceral sees EU-27 2008-2009 grain crop at 289mmt, soft wheat crop estimated at 130.3mmt, up 17%.

India sees record wheat crop of 78mmt allowing early release of stocks to ease domestic prices.

Recent rains in Eastern Australia boosts prospects for winter cereal crop.

US winter wheat harvest seen as 22% complete, early cuttings indicate good yield/quality but reduced proteins.

The recent US weather has and will continue to drive prices for the coming weeks. A drier spell allowed the market to drift lower, but with reports of a wetter weather pattern to arrive in the next few days the market bounced higher yesterday. Harvest is steadily moving north into the key US producing states with good yields being reported.

Harvest has also started in the Southern EU and Russia and will soon start in quantity in the key EU countries of Germany, France and the UK. As the potential of bumper crops remain in the EU, FSU and other major producing regions of the world, exportable availability will increase, and therefore cereal prices could come under pressure as harvest accelerates.

On Monday, the USDA release their planting and quarterly stocks reports, which the trade will closely monitor. Currently the USDA are trying to assess the extent of plantings lost to the extreme weather conditions in the US this year and many believe that the full extent of this report will not be available until July/August, leaving the market open to speculation.

OILSEED RAPE

The European rapeseed market remains torn between the influence of high crude oil prices and the perception of growing demand from the bio-diesel sector, coupled with concerns regarding US soy production, and the prospect of a record production in both rapeseed and sunflower seed.

With all of these factors influencing the market it is very difficult to give a definite long term view. However, with huge rapeseed crops about to be harvested throughout Europe and the Ukraine and farmer’s requirements of cash flow and space (there’s a big wheat crop on the horizon) we expect the market to come under pressure as the combines start. We have already seen the market carry between July/Aug and November start to widen and we believe this will widen further.

MALTING BARLEY

The EU malting barley crop is underway in France and Germany and initial reports are of average to excellent yields and quality.

Nitrogen levels are very low and grains are very bold with few screenings.

Prices have fallen on the back of the good results as this obviously increases the amount of supply available.

The UK winter malting harvest is only a few weeks away and currently the crop looks excellent throughout the UK. Anyone needing harvest movement should contact their local farm trader ASAP as harvest movement is limited.

FERTILISER

The latest price correction on Prilled Urea has sparked some Indian buying interest and the outlook for July prices is now upwards.

US Granular Urea prices have also firmed, usually an indicator for where the UK market will go next, so the market for urea in general appears poised for another "run up" in the next few weeks.

The outlook for Granular Urea in the UK remains positive. Product will remain in demand as the UK industry continues to restrict allocations of ammonium nitrate.

Gleadell Agriculture have product to offer from both their import facilities in Immingham and Avonmouth for immediate delivery.

Supply of any alternative nitrogen sources will remain tight throughout the second half of the campaign, possibly creating a resurgent in buying interest from the FSU states where product appears to be competitive.

Imported Ammonium Nitrate from these areas will arrive into the UK at some stage filling the gap we have seen created by the closure of the Terra Severnside production facility in February this year.

Sulphur products remain hard to source with any offers "few and far between". Ammonium Sulphate will arrive to these shores but the quality is likely to be 1 - 4 mm NOT the 2- 4mm material that the UK market has received in the past.

SEED
Winter malting barley seed has gone up in price this week due to a tight supply and increased demand. The wholesale trade is reporting brisk sales.

Pulse seed is also selling fast due to the attraction of not having to buy so much nitrogen.

Oats are also proving popular - buybacks are available for most varieties.

For those growers who think that grain prices are going up, now is the time to order your wheat seed. Every time wheat prices rise then so does the price of your seed.

Please contract your farm trader for details.